As the weather cools, people inevitably move inside, school continues apace, and holiday gatherings ramp up — all precursors to yearly cold, flu, and Covid spikes.
But just how much worse will this fall and winter be?
“The CDC is expecting about the same amount of respiratory viruses that we've had similar to last year,” reassured Dr. Rosanne Sugay, a medical epidemiologist with the Southern Nevada Health District. “What we're seeing is perhaps [Covid is] not as severe. Maybe it's because we have treatment available to mitigate some of those severe instances.”
That prediction holds true for flu, at least for now, thanks to our warmer-than-average year.
“It seems like in terms of temperatures, winter and fall is sort of a little bit delayed in Nevada, and hopefully that will be helpful,” Sugay said. “It’s a really good time to stay on top of vaccination to help prevent that potential surge in the winter.”
That recommendation is coming on the heels of recent news that, for the first time in over a decade, this year’s flu shot doesn’t contain the Influenza B/Yamagata strain. Experts believe this strain has gone extinct since Covid precautions began in 2020 — proof that precautionary measures like masking, social distancing, and vaccination work.
“It's all about preventing transmission,” she said. “So if we in public health effectively stop further transmission, you're going to see strains disappear.”
Then again, the CDC has recently said flu vaccinations have fallen nationwide in the last year. They haven’t been this low for children in 12 years, and the last time they were this low for adults was in 2017 and 2018.
That’s on top of the fact that Nevada has the second-lowest rate of flu vaccinations in the country, just behind Mississippi, which has one of the highest poverty rates in the country.
For those looking to get their yearly jabs, SNHD has a list of vaccination sites around the valley on its website.
But the low vaccination rate is not the only public health issue the Health District is keeping an eye on.
SNHD just launched its Substance Use Dashboard in September, which provides locals with a “one stop shop” for practical information about substance use in the valley, including a large cache of data about fatal and nonfatal overdoses.
Broadly, statistics from the last five years show an 87 percent increase in overdose deaths since 2018, with Black men making up a disproportionate share of those impacted.
Brandon Delise, a senior epidemiologist with the Southern Nevada Health District, attributes this increase to the rise of fentanyl making its way into the local drug supply.
“Fentanyl is a very powerful synthetic opioid,” he said. “It's much stronger than other opioids such as morphine or heroin — about 50 to 100 times more potent,” which contributes to higher fatality rates.
But the dashboard is also solutions-focused, with the introduction of the “The Strip Club,” which will mail free xylazine and fentanyl test strips anywhere in Clark County in an effort to curb accidental overdoses.
“[Test strips are] a low-cost way to reduce the risk of overdose by alerting individuals about the presence of these dangerous substances,” Delise said. “People do want to know what's in their drug supply. A lot of people don't want to consume fentanyl; a lot of people don't want to consume xylazine. So these test strips are very important within the harm reduction world for people to reduce their risk for overdose.”
Guests: Brandon Delise, senior epidemiologist, Southern Nevada Health District; Dr. Rosanne Sugay, medical epidemiologist for SNHD
