AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
As we were hearing, President Trump talked a lot yesterday about things that essentially amount to nation-building in Venezuela. But is there a clear path to success for that endeavor, particularly after months of intimidation and a forced regime change? Ambassador Frederick Barton was the first assistant secretary of state for conflict and stabilization operations during President Obama's administration. He's also a lecturer at Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs, and he joins us now. Welcome to the program.
FREDERICK BARTON: Thanks so much, Ayesha.
RASCOE: Given all of your experience, can you see the U.S. succeeding in its stated mission in Venezuela?
BARTON: It's going to be tough. I mean, in a way, they've done the easiest piece already, and we've seen that over and over again. These are huge tasks, a country of about 30 million people, twice the size of Iraq. We haven't really been in the country in the way we should be to know it before we get into it. We have not engaged the American public. There are obvious questions of illegality that need to be - that will be addressed. The global imprint of this action is questionable. So the entry point really matters, and the entry was the most planned out part of this whole process. It's doubtful that the planning has gone over into this next stage.
RASCOE: President Trump says the U.S. will be running Venezuela. And obviously, we don't know exactly what that means. Is that assurance that the U.S. will be running Venezuela on top of a potential U.S. military occupation - is that seen as reassuring to the local population in these situations, as they try to form their new government?
BARTON: Well, I suspect there's some hopefulness there. I mean, there was clearly fatigue with Maduro. The destruction of the country had been quite thorough over the last couple of decades. The sanctions and other restrictions have really toughened life there. Many, many, many Venezuelans are living in the United States, either by choice or because they had no other choice. So the conditions in or outside the country - a huge part of their population is millions of people outside of the country. So all - those all leave you with a feeling that the Venezuelans clearly were ready for something else. But to do it this way takes on a burden that we're not particularly good at. And to complicate matters, this administration has gotten rid of all the people and all the offices that had any expertise in this area.
RASCOE: Well, I wanted to ask you about that because, you know, the Trump administration has made major cuts to USAID agencies and their programs. So as it stands, do you have the relevant departments and agencies in a position to facilitate this development and rebuilding?
BARTON: Not really. And that's a huge complication because the normal course of diplomacy is to talk to the leadership, to assume that there's a degree of stability or to go in there in emergency discussions. And what we're talking about is flooding the zone. So it leads me to believe that President Trump, who really seems to call most of the signals here, is going to go for some kind of a hybrid model, which would be the only path forward but still a very, very narrow path for success.
RASCOE: So President Trump mentioned Venezuela's considerable oil reserves several times, essentially saying that the country's own oil will pay for its rebuilding. Is that realistic?
BARTON: Well, it proved to be completely false in Iraq, which was pumping a lot more oil than Venezuela is. Now, Venezuela has capacity that's not being used now because of deterioration and sanctions and other reasons. So it's possible. And oil companies have worked in places that they don't particularly like. Nigeria - Shell tried to get out eventually. Chevron's obviously been here.
RASCOE: Chevron's been in Venezuela. Yeah.
BARTON: Been in Venezuela. Angola has had a long-standing kind of oil zone, a safe zone. But this - so the hybrid would look like oil, plus maybe a deal with the existing leadership, and we pay off the military and the police so they maintain order 'cause that's the very first issue.
RASCOE: That's Ambassador Frederick Barton. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
BARTON: Hey, my pleasure. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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