SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
The U.S. government shutdown is entering its 39th day. Yes, it is the longest in U.S. history. And this week, Democrats won solid victories in the New Jersey and Virginia governors races, among many others. NPR senior political contributor Ron Elving joins us from Milwaukee. Ron, thanks so much for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: How do you read what you think a lot of voters were saying?
ELVING: The common message was that they wanted to see more positive change in their own personal circumstances - more focus on prices and jobs and economic futures. And the message was quite clear across state lines in voting groups, not just New York, New Jersey, California and Virginia, but in less-noticed races in Pennsylvania, Georgia and even Mississippi. And yes, blue cities and blue states were voting blue, but voting groups that had been trending for Trump and the Republican Party in those states stopped trending that way - younger voters, noncollege voters, Hispanics and other people of color.
So we have reached the first turning point in Trump's second term. And this is no longer the summer of Trump carrying all before him, testing the limits of his office, with no one to oppose him. Voters have now weighed in. The courts are pushing back. There are internal divisions within the Trump coalition, and even some of his supporters in Congress are looking for room to maneuver. So Republicans need to decide how they run and win without Trump on the ballot to bring out his portion of the electorate.
SIMON: In the end, is it the economy, the economy, the economy that counts?
ELVING: We don't have the usual government numbers because of the shutdown, but we have private agencies measuring people losing their jobs, and some of their reports suggest we are nearing recession-level job losses. The University of Michigan consumer confidence gauge, which is a national measure, is nearing a low point. And then there's the new buzzword of the year, affordability. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in late October found that 7 out of 10 Americans say their grocery costs have gone up over the past year, and 6 out of 10 say the same for their utility prices. The president, though, sees things his own way. Here he is talking to reporters about a Walmart Thanksgiving bundle and seeming to equate a certain holiday special with the state of the economy.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Walmart just announced it two days ago - 25% cheaper. This year will be cheaper to have Thanksgiving than it was a year ago under sleepy Joe Biden.
ELVING: What the president doesn't mention is that the Walmart Thanksgiving special has significantly fewer items in it this year. More of them are store brand, not name-brand items, meaning they tend to cost less. It's a classic case of shrinkflation where the product gets smaller.
SIMON: So after this weekend, the shutdown will be 40 days and 40 nights, the longest in history - getting longer. What are you watching for in the coming days?
ELVING: It's going to get still worse. People are going to have trouble getting those food stamps because, with courts trying to restore full benefits and the administration saying it will comply even as it appeals that decision to the Supreme Court, all of the confusion will take time to sort out. The air traffic control system was already stretched dangerously thin before this, so we're seeing some airports in chaos, and there have been a thousand flights canceled.
It's hard to imagine the Republicans in Congress making a deal at this point without Trump driving the bargain, and it's hard to imagine getting it done without the House coming back into town, in Washington, into official session. And right now, Speaker Mike Johnson is still refusing to do that, mindful no doubt that it would mean swearing in a new Democratic member who was elected six weeks ago, making it quite likely that the House would vote to release the Jeffrey Epstein files that Johnson has been blocking.
SIMON: NPR's Ron Elving. Very good to talk to you, my friend. Talk to you next week. Take care.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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