SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Back in May, NPR organized a couple of focus groups with so-called double-haters. They were voters who disapproved of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, and they were estimated to be as much as a quarter of the electorate at that time. Of course, Biden then dropped out of the race. Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up. Still, these voters will be making a decision, so NPR followed up with them. NPR's Mara Liasson and Susan Davis join us now. Welcome to both of you.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hi there.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Hey, Scott.
DETROW: Sue, I'm going to start with you. Can you remind us who these people were and why you were so focused on them?
DAVIS: So voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and then Biden in 2020 were a key component of Biden's winning coalition, and they remain key swing voters in this election. So we partnered with Rich Thau of Engagious and Sago market research, who identified a dozen of these very voters. And back in May, there was a clear lean towards Biden. But today, there's a lean towards Trump.
And also, Scott, it's not fair to call this group double-haters anymore. Only four of them said they still disapprove of both candidates, but none of the remaining double-haters are voting for Harris.
DETROW: Mara, that sounds like a real red flag, though, for the Harris campaign.
LIASSON: It's a big red flag. It shows she hasn't closed the sale yet. But we want to be very clear - this is what we call anecdata. It's not scientific like a poll, which tells us how many voters feel a certain way. Focus groups - a tiny slice of voters - give us insight into why they feel that way. And in Harris' case, there's generally a more positive feeling toward her. There's also more optimism that she can win the election, which Biden-leaners did not feel back in May. They were pretty sure he was going to lose to Trump.
But she remains poorly defined. Unlike Trump, who people feel they know very well - for better or for worse - even Harris' supporters say they don't know much about her agenda or how she would govern. One of them is Eugene. He's 43 years old, an African American man who lives in Decatur, Georgia, and he was probably the most enthusiastic Harris voter in the group.
EUGENE: From what I've seen and read, one of the big problems that the country has with her is that, other than what's readily available in her book, we don't know a whole lot about her.
LIASSON: But she is the most important thing to voters like Eugene - she is not Donald Trump.
DETROW: Speaking of Donald Trump, Sue, a lot of Democrats have this theory that Trump's actions in the wake of the 2020 elections and extreme views that he's had since then have really disqualified him to many people who voted for him in 2020, even. And yet, there are people in this group who did not vote for Donald Trump in 2020 but who say they're going to vote for him in 2024. Explain that.
DAVIS: You know, what was so interesting to me was that 3 of the 4 now-likely Trump voters said they're still afraid of what he might do as president. They're worried about political violence he could provoke. They even consider themselves pro-choice. And yet, when it comes to the economy, they still think Trump would be better for their pocketbook.
One of them is Kimberly (ph). She's a 51-year-old project manager, and she lives in Cave Creek, Arizona, which is a suburb of Phoenix.
KIMBERLY: Having as much power as a president does in his hands scares me a little bit. But at the same time, I know what our family has been through with the economy recently, and I can't be 100% on board with what's going on with the economy, either.
DAVIS: You know, at first, Kimberly said she was 50-50 between Trump and Harris. But when she was pushed on this repeatedly, it became pretty clear she intends to vote for Trump.
DETROW: Mara, Harris became the Democratic nominee a little bit more than 100 days or so before the election. There were definitely upsides to that - right? - no bruising primary, among other things. But these voters also seem to highlight the downsides of that reality - that she just did not have much time to introduce herself. Is she running out of time?
LIASSON: Well, the calendar isn't in her favor. One of the big takeaways from these voters is that no one really knew what Harris' economic agenda is, although they all said they'd like to know more about it. Harris does, of course, have an economic agenda, but it hasn't broken through to these voters.
Also, the Trump campaign is trying to define Harris as an extreme liberal - dangerously liberal is their tagline. They're running ads all over the country right now, attacking Harris for past comments in support of transgender people's access to medical care, including those in prison. And nearly all of these voters have seen these ads. Most of them thought they could be persuasive.
Juanita is a 55-year-old woman from West Jefferson, North Carolina, and these were her thoughts on that message.
JUANITA: Well, if she's spending taxpayer monies to provide something like that for people that are in prison, it's going to make people wonder what else she's going to be spending the taxpayers' money on. What frivolous rules and stuff is she going to pass?
LIASSON: And Juanita is going to vote for Harris, but she's from a rural part of a swing state where there are more conservative views on these social issues.
DETROW: Sue, Harris has made a clear decision to play down her race and gender in this campaign. But I'm curious what these voters had to say about the historic nature of her candidacy. Did that matter at all to them?
DAVIS: You know, none of them brought it up on their own, but this is something we did ask our moderator, Rich, to provoke them on, especially what factor they think gender would play in the end. And 5 of these 10 voters said they believed, if Harris lost the election, the fact that she's a woman would be a factor there. And three of those people are still voting for her - one of them, Cherlyn. She's 48. She lives in Decatur, Michigan. She had been a lifelong Republican, but she's left the party over Trump.
CHERLYN: I know they weren't ready for Hillary Clinton and - I don't know. There's a lot of people, I think, that won't vote for somebody just because she's a woman, or, you know, that's not what a president looks like in their mind. So it's a hurdle.
DAVIS: Also, Scott, no one saw being a woman as an asset in this campaign.
DETROW: Interesting. Mara, like I said before, less than 20 days to go until Election Day, but we are at a point now where hundreds of thousands of people are voting each day in several of the key swing states that are going to decide this election. How are you thinking about this race right now?
LIASSON: Well, this is a race where neither candidate has been able to establish a lead outside the margin of error. This focus group gave us some insight into why they haven't been able to - Trump because he's seen as unstable and extreme, Harris because she has all of these past liberal statements and because she's part of an administration that has presided over a period of big inflation. Despite all the other good economic news, inflation defeats presidents. It's the most important political economic indicator there is.
DETROW: That is NPR's Mara Liasson and Susan Davis, closing the loop with these double-hater voters. I do not hate either of you, and I always enjoy talking to both of you. Thanks so much.
LIASSON: Aw, so do we.
DAVIS: You're welcome.
LIASSON: (Laughter). Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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