STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
We begin with a big question about the Middle East. How does this end? For the second straight day, communication devices exploded in Lebanon, first pagers and then radios belonging to members of the group Hezbollah. Dozens of people are dead and hundreds injured. NPR has reported that Israel privately acknowledged responsibility when speaking with U.S. officials. This was a technically impressive set of attacks, but what was the strategic goal? That's where we begin our discussion with Aaron David Miller, former State Department negotiator, longtime observer of the Middle East and an occasional guest here. Mr. Miller, welcome back.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Steve, it's always a pleasure to be here.
INSKEEP: So what do you think the strategic goal would be with hitting Hezbollah twice in this way?
MILLER: Look, I think a year ago, the Israelis made a decision that they're going to try to penetrate Hezbollah comms. And the strategic objective, I think, was in preparation for a massive and major Israeli ground operation, primarily in southern Lebanon, maybe even beyond. These were to be intended, I think, as the first blows to fundamentally disrupt Hezbollah comms, deal a psychological blow and essentially create a situation where key Hezbollah decision-makers and fighters were simply disconnected from one another. You can imagine for any military what a blow that would be. The problem was, I think, based on the reporting we're seeing is that Hezbollah became aware of the penetration of their comms system. Israelis had to act to implement it now with no follow-on...
INSKEEP: Oh.
MILLER: ...Major operation.
INSKEEP: Oh, wait a minute. You're suggesting - your suspicion is that Israel had to act early while they still could get away with it before Hezbollah could respond to the compromising of this. You do not think then that Israel is yet ready with a ground offensive to go across the border into Lebanon?
MILLER: I think this has been one of the great decisions, and they've given every indication. Yoav Gallant, minister of defense, the prime minister has recently, now formally through Cabinet approval, added the return of the 60,000 displaced Israelis to Israel's four major war objectives. So, yeah, there's no doubt they were trending in this direction. The question is, are they going to go through with it? And I think to some degree, this actually may have delayed any perspective option.
INSKEEP: OK. And this is something the United States, according to its public statements anyway, has been trying to prevent, a widening of the war. I want to ask about another strategic development. The Biden administration has long wanted and Israel has long wanted normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, arguably the most important Arab nation. The Saudis have been talking about it, but Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said yesterday there's not going to be a deal without the creation of a Palestinian state. How different is that from anything the Saudis have said before?
MILLER: I think the Saudi rhetoric has been toughening and hardening in this direction for months now. This was a formal statement by the crown prince in the name of the king to the advisory Shura Council, so maybe it carries more weight. Look, if Mohammed bin Salman could get away with it, he'd water down any Saudi commitment to Palestinian statehood. But I think because of developments in Gaza, the West Bank, the exponential rise of Palestinian deaths, the humanitarian catastrophe, bitterness and anger in the Arab world, that Saudi capacity to maneuver their margin on this one has narrowed considerably, and we're running out of time.
INSKEEP: You're saying it's politically difficult, if not impossible, for the Saudis to make a deal with Israel right now?
MILLER: I mean, right now, I think it's politically impossible.
INSKEEP: Aaron David Miller is a former State Department negotiator and expert on U.S. foreign policy. Always a pleasure talking with you. Thanks.
MILLER: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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