LEILA FADEL, HOST:
In a single day, President Trump has rewritten U.S. foreign policy on Russia. Trump said yesterday he talked with Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, and then spoke with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declaring that peace talks should start immediately - beginning with meetings with Putin.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: We ultimately expect to meet. In fact, we expect that he'll come here, and I'll go there. And we're going to meet also, probably, in Saudi Arabia the first time. We'll meet in Saudi Arabia, see if we can get something done. But we want to end that war. That war is a disaster.
FADEL: So is a durable peace on the horizon? To discuss, we're joined by Jeremy Shapiro. He's the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Good morning, and thanks for being on the program.
JEREMY SHAPIRO: Good morning.
FADEL: So how significant was this call between Putin and a sitting U.S. president and Trump's promise of a meeting?
SHAPIRO: It's quite significant. Anytime the U.S. president and the Russian president talk is very important. But maybe more importantly, it's the first concrete sign that both sides are actually willing to negotiate on this war.
FADEL: And what do you make of these negotiations? I mean, is this something that will be in the interest of the U.S.?
SHAPIRO: Well, it's in the interests of the U.S., as Trump has defined it. We could argue over whether that's the right definition, but he has very few things that he actually wants out of a peace settlement with Russia over Ukraine. He said it just yesterday - I'm just here to try and get peace. I don't care so much about anything - who seems to want to get the U.S. out of the war. And he can achieve those things. The Ukrainians have other goals.
FADEL: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth yesterday told NATO allies it's not realistic to expect NATO membership for Ukraine - which Ukraine wants - or to restore Ukrainian territory in Crimea that Russia seized in its invasion more than 10 years ago. Is the U.S. already conceding ground before talks even begin?
SHAPIRO: Yes, they are conceding ground, but it's not ground that they really wanted to hold. So I think it wasn't seen, from the perspective of Trump or Hegseth, as important ground that they were conceding. I guess from a Ukrainian or even a European perspective, it's a bit of a disaster.
FADEL: Say more about that. I mean, right now, we haven't heard from Ukrainians in this moment.
SHAPIRO: Well, Ukrainians are very concerned that any peace deal between the U.S. and Russia will leave them out in the cold. They've wanted security guarantees from the United States, optimally in the form of a NATO guarantee that will protect them in case Russia restarts the war after a settlement. What Hegseth and Trump have essentially done is rule out any future guarantee that will make Ukrainians feel like stopping the war isn't just a temporary way of allowing Russia to rest and refit and come back in a few years' time.
FADEL: Some analysts and Ukrainians argue that Trump speaking with or agreeing to speak with Putin or meet with Putin legitimizes Russia's imperialistic actions and could ultimately embolden him to do more with Ukraine or elsewhere. What kind of message is Trump sending to the world by seeking peace in this way, where conceding land is a possibility?
SHAPIRO: I think he's sending a few different messages. First, he's saying that it's not the U.S.' responsibility to protect Ukraine and Europe. Second, I think he is sending the message not exactly that aggression can hold but that it's possible to change borders. And, of course, he's been talking about changing borders in the U.S. with Greenland and Panama, and even Canada. So I think he is sending the message that the sort of global world order, which has meant that borders are inviolable, is no longer operational.
FADEL: But what would an alternative look like? I mean, to get to a place where this war ends that wouldn't cede territory, which is in contravention of international law, what would a different alternative look like?
SHAPIRO: I'm not really sure that there is much of an alternative because the military on the ground makes the difference. And Russia, right now, is winning this war on the ground. And unless the United States is willing to put in more effort - which Trump is not - then this is the deal that they're probably going to have to take.
FADEL: Jeremy Shapiro. He's a research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Thank you for your time.
SHAPIRO: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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