If you have been tuned in to the polls ahead of this election, you may not have gotten the full picture. One research team instead found clues on Americans’ front yards — and on their heads.
New York University computer science professor Anasse Bari has been tracking internet searches for campaign signs, hats and shirts.
“This approach measures engagement with candidates in ways polling doesn't capture,” Bari said.
In the months leading up to the election, online searches for Kamala Harris campaign signs outpaced those for Donald Trump ones by 3 to 1 (76% to 24%).
This could be because Harris was late to enter the race. Before that, Trump had led former presidential candidate Joe Biden, 74% to 26%.
Bari said these numbers don’t predict election results, but they can show enthusiasm in real time, whereas polling relies on self-reporting.
“If someone is searching online for their candidate's yard sign, shirt, hat, flag … there is a good chance that, one, they are supportive of that candidate,” Bari said. “And then No. 2 is that there's a strong likelihood that they will vote for them.”
In Mountain West swing states such as Arizona and Nevada, around 70% of total searches were related to Harris yard signs, from July until mid-October.
But Trump led when it came to hats. In Nevada, his hats accounted for 95% of total searches.
It’s unclear how much of that is related to cultural variables. “Make America Great Again” hats are a staple of Trump’s campaign.
Still, Bari said this information could be valuable in future elections alongside data from social media, campaign contributions, and polls.
“If we join forces with the polls and other data points, we can have a better overview of the sentiments for candidates,” he added.
An analysis from Bari’s lab in 2020 found that then-candidate Biden led Trump by 28% in online searches for yard signs. His team has also used a similar approach to track vaccine hesitancy.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
