It's election season in Nevada and, once again, the eyes of the nation and the world are upon the Silver State. As I write this, it’s impossible to tell exactly which way the winds of fate will blow. During previous elections, pollsters famously predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide in 2016 and a “red wave” in 2022.
Neither of those things happened. Clinton won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College, while Democrats picked up legislative seats in Washington, D.C., and Carson City during the last midterm. So, does that mean that all polling is bogus? Not necessarily.
For instance, we know that, earlier this year, virtually all polls showed the state was well on its way to giving former President Donald Trump and Republicans a Nevada victory in November.
That was roughly the same time that walking outside in Nevada felt like stepping onto the sun. It was also a couple of weeks after President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance. So, talking to potential Democratic voters, it was hard to tell whether their malaise came more from the oppressive heat or Biden’s dwindling chances.
In any case, it was a common malady. Voter after voter fell into one of three camps: an eager Trump Republican, a disaffected moderate, or a Democrat worried about the president’s reelection bid.
“I have concerns,” said Laura Marineau of Sparks, as she watched her grandson play along the banks of the Truckee River. “I have a high regard for his (Biden’s) integrity, but it’s risky for him to stay in the race.”
“I don’t like what Biden’s doing,” said another voter, Justin Morgan of Reno, regarding the president’s handling of the war in Gaza. “And I think that Trump is kind of egotistical.” He added that he wasn’t going to vote at all.
And in polls at the time, Trump consistently led the race by at least five points, which grew to double digits after the debate. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Nevada race from “toss-up” to “leans Republican.”
Of course, in political terms, that’s ancient history. Since then, Trump was shot on live television in an assassination attempt during a rally in Pennsylvania. President Biden stepped away from his party’s nomination and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement. And Harris selected the affable governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, as her running mate.
For Democrats running for office across the country and here in Nevada, the summer’s events seemed a blessing. Heading into the Labor Day weekend, polls showed Trump’s lead had all but vanished.
“I don’t know if there was anything that we were consigned to,” says Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch, a Democrat from Reno. “I just think that we are so excited about this new energy and these new ideas, and just (eager) to get out there and really see the face of modern America leading the charge.”
Despite that enthusiasm, Trump and other Republicans still have a chance to win in Nevada.
The reasons? First, our state continues to grapple with a sluggish economy. Since the pandemic, the state has maintained the highest unemployment in the country. In Las Vegas, the jobless rate is even higher. Voters are also dealing with rising housing prices, grocery bills, and fuel and energy costs. It’s left many feeling like they’re doing worse now than they were four years ago. And Trump seems to hold sway over voters who say the economy is a big factor in how they vote.
Democrats are also starting to see the rise of the so-called “Lombardo Machine.” Since taking office, Governor Joe Lombardo has proven he’s not afraid to go toe-to-toe with the Democratic majority in the Nevada Legislature. He vetoed 75 bills during his first session in 2023. He’s also taken an approach to party management similar to that of former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, being very hands-on in shaping the Republican Party’s makeup in both state and federal politics. Lombardo took the unprecedented step, for instance, of endorsing Republican candidates ahead of the primary as part of an effort to head off a Democratic supermajority in the legislature. All those candidates won their primary, forcing Democrats to compete and spend money in districts already drawn to favor their party.
Lastly, there’s simply a growing number of nonpartisan voters. According to the Secretary of State’s office, more than a third of active, registered voters in Nevada are nonpartisan. That’s largely thanks to the state’s “motor voter” law, which automatically registers voters when they conduct a DMV transaction. It’s also because of disillusionment with political parties. A 2022 Pew Research Center survey found “growing frustration,” as they put it, to be more evident among younger and less politically engaged voters.
Finally, remember what happened in 2016 and 2020? Heading into the final weeks of the election, pundits and pollsters were touting their projections as tantamount to the word of God. But many of those polls and surveys were just plain wrong. They oversampled Democrats and understated the strength of blue-collar Republicans. Then, they seemed to overcorrect during the 2022 congressional midterms, promising a wave of GOP victories that failed to manifest.
Yet here we are. In the midst of another tight election cycle — where control of the White House, Congress, the Nevada Legislature, and local offices across the state are at stake — pollsters and politicos are once again crowing confidently about their models, forecasts, and ever-changing predictions.
And for the most part, I believe them … in the same way that I believe it’s a good idea to carry an umbrella. It’s nice to have, but, in Nevada, I won’t put my money on rain.
