The study led by the University of Colorado Boulder shows that human-caused greenhouse gases and industrial pollution are the main reasons.
Lead author Jeremy Klavans said if emissions keep rising, “water managers, people who are involved in water infrastructure planning, should set their expectations as a continued drought. We see this as much more likely than not in the coming decades.”
Researchers looked at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural climate cycle that usually flips between wet and dry phases every 20 to 30 years. But it’s been stuck in a drier state for more than three decades, shrinking the Colorado River, parching farms, and increasing the risk for wildfires.
Klavans, a researcher in CU Boulder’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, said the study gives water managers new data to better prepare for shortages and invest in new infrastructure, like wastewater recycling or desalination plants.
He added that the findings also highlight the urgent need to cut emissions if Western states hope to see a return to historic, wetter conditions.
“We're going to be stuck in a drought-like state, as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the rate we've been doing so,” he warned.
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
