Republicans in some states in our region are casting ballots in the 2024 election in higher numbers than in years past.
It appears to mark a return to historical patterns, according to Elections and Voting Information Center Director Paul Gronke, who said early voting is all about building a seawall.
“You're banking these votes prior to the election because you expect there's going to be this tidal wave of Election Day votes,” he said.
In 2020, that seawall was blue, since Republicans urged people to not vote by mail. But Gronke said the GOP has traditionally encouraged early voting — and some officials are returning to that standpoint this year.
“There's sort of a rebalancing,” Gronke said. “There's a return to normality in some respects.”
Now, the seawall in swing states such as Nevada and Arizona is trending redder than in past years. In both states, about 40% of early voters have been Republican, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab. That’s a couple percentage points higher than around this time in 2020.
Credit: University of Florida Election Lab
In Mountain West states where it’s an option, Republicans are still more likely to vote early in-person rather than by mail, the data shows.
Gronke said voting by mail is particularly advantageous in the West.
“We’re big, sparsely populated states in many cases, with long distances to drive,” he said. “It's quite difficult for people in many areas to get to their precinct place.”
Gronke said early voting numbers for all parties have been steadily increasing for the
last 25 years, with a big uptick during the pandemic.
In Wyoming, more than 30% of all registered voters have turned out — which is higher than the 2022 election, according to the secretary of state.
Across the region, Gronke said only time will tell what color the tidal wave is come Election Day.
Credit: University of Florida Election Lab, secretary of state websites
This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, Boise State Public Radio in Idaho, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Colorado and KANW in New Mexico, with support from affiliate stations across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
