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Hurricane Rafael forms in the Caribbean Sea and expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico

By Russell Lewis
Published November 5, 2024 at 4:54 PM PST
The National Hurricane Center says Rafael has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the Cayman Islands. The storm will move across Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.
National Hurricane Center
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via NPR screen capture
The National Hurricane Center says Rafael has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the Cayman Islands. The storm will move across Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

Rafael has strengthened into a hurricane as it moves through the southern Caribbean Sea.

The category 1 storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and is approaching the Cayman Islands. It will be near or over western Cuba Wednesday, and move into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say a “steady to rapid intensification” is expected during the next 24 hours or so.

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Heavy rainfall is predicted through early Thursday across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba. Isolated totals up to 10 inches are anticipated across higher terrain, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas where up to three inches of rain is forecast. A few tornadoes are possible tomorrow over the Keys and inland Southwest Florida.

While additional strengthening is forecast, the storm is predicted to weaken to a tropical storm due to wind shear and cooler waters when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Meteorologists caution it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

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Russell Lewis
As NPR's Southern Bureau chief, Russell Lewis covers issues and people of the Southeast for NPR — from Florida to Virginia to Texas, including West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. His work brings context and dimension to issues ranging from immigration, transportation, and oil and gas drilling for NPR listeners across the nation and around the world.