Nearly 1.5 million Nevadans voted in the 2024 general election, and more than half (at least 730,000) cast a ballot supporting President-elect Donald Trump, giving Republicans their first win in a presidential race in Nevada in 20 years. At the same time, a proposed abortion rights amendment passed its initial vote, and down-ballot Democrats largely held onto their seats in Congress and the state legislature.
Now, I won’t explore the many theories about why Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris lost. For that, I suggest you turn on your radio or TV anytime between now and the inauguration to listen to the pundit class flail about.
Instead, I want to focus on the resurgence of split-ticket voting
in Nevada.
It’s something that voters here historically have loved to do. Since becoming a state in 1864, Nevada has had equal representation with its federal delegation — 14 U.S. senators from each major party. Among its 31 governors, the state has been led by 15 Republicans, 12 Democrats and four governors from the Silver and Silver Democrat Parties, which operated at the turn of the 20th century and were more closely aligned with the period’s Democrats.
More recently, during the 2022 midterm election, incumbent U.S. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, and a slew of down-ballot Democrats were reelected alongside Republican Governor Joe Lombardo.
Why?
First, nonpartisan voters are now the key to winning elections in the Silver State. Mainly due to the state’s motor voter law (automatic voter registration through the DMV), nonpartisans are now the largest voting bloc in the state. And while they may not be as politically engaged as their Republican and Democratic counterparts, nearly half a million nonpartisan voters filled out a ballot in 2024.
According to a CNN exit poll, Nevada’s nonpartisan voters broke in favor of President-elect Trump, giving him 48 percent of the total, compared to 46 percent for Harris. Trump won 55 percent among nonpartisan men.
Second, bipartisanship matters. Heading into the election cycle, Nevada Democrats Jacky Rosen and Susie Lee were considered to be among Congress’s highly vulnerable Democrats. Yet both incumbents campaigned heavily on their willingness to work across the aisle — and won reelection.
Finally, many voters have been expressing a desire for fundamental change. According to Gallup, most Americans have voiced dissatisfaction with the country’s direction since 2005. And in Nevada, who can blame them? The state has had the country’s highest unemployment rate since the end of the pandemic. That’s on top of rising prices for housing, groceries, energy, and childcare.
When you combine it all, a picture becomes clear: America’s two major political parties are in flux. The Republican Party of 2024 looks much different than George W. Bush’s GOP of 2000. Trump’s antiestablishment rhetoric and promises to bolster the working class have brought new voters to the GOP, particularly young men who feel the American Dream is frustratingly out of reach. At the same time, the Democratic Party’s foundation has also shifted around it. What was once a party that could win rural communities through its ties to labor groups has now coalesced around white-collar professionals and suburbanites with college degrees.
Further complicating matters, non-white voters, once considered the Democratic party’s heart and soul, have begun embracing a Republican Party that’s courted them extensively for two decades. In 2020, President Biden carried heavily Latino Clark County by more than 90,000 votes. Harris won it by fewer than 30,000.
Meanwhile, voters who no longer identify with the system — or are just tired of the nonstop political cycle — will continue to disengage. Some may become nonpartisans, only paying attention when a ballot appears in their mailbox. Others will just stop caring.
It all adds up to a Nevada where voters remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future. This essentially guarantees the Silver State’s designation as a battleground again in 2028.
