What does the early caucus really mean in Nevada? A lot, actually
For a brief moment, Nevada will be at the center of the political universe.
It’s happened before, albeit on a smaller scale: We’ve had Republican debates, Democratic debates and — in October — the final debate of the general election.
But those events are more show than substance. On February 20 (and again on February 23), Nevadans will be the third (or fourth) people in the nation to stand forward and declare who should be the Democratic and Republican nominee, respectively, for president of the United States.
Before caucus day is upon us, however, there are a few questions to answer.
1. How will it all go down? This time around, the caucuses aren’t even on the same day, thanks to a quirk in the scheduling of the Republican voting in South Carolina. While Democrats will caucus most of the day on a Saturday (February 20), Republicans will turn out for an evening event on a Tuesday (February 23). While Democrats will hold a traditional caucus — in which cheering partisans will try to convert their fellows to support their favored candidate — Republicans will ultimately use voting machines to record their preferences.
2. What does it matter, really? Nevada’s caucuses will actually matter as candidates struggle to get early momentum. Polls in mid-January showed Bernie Sanders closing on Hillary Clinton; if he were to beat her in Iowa and New Hampshire (or if they were to win one state each going into Nevada), we become an early tie-breaker. That will test how effectively each campaign has organized the state, and who’s better at getting their voters to turn out. Ditto for the Republicans: Unlike 2008 (when Mitt Romney won going away, only to lose the eventual nomination to third-place Nevada finisher John McCain) or 2012 (when Romney won the state and the nomination), it’s wide open this year. Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are competitive here, and Donald Trump has been setting up organizing meetings for weeks. If Cruz wins an early state or two, for example, Nevada may be a contest to stop his momentum, or perhaps to continue it.
3. Are these contests actually going to be close? Republican caucus wins are usually blowouts (Romney collected fully half the vote in 2008 and 2012, with the rest of the candidates dividing the balance). But in 2008, when Clinton faced off with Barack Obama, it was an odd tie: Clinton edged Obama 51 percent to 45 percent, but Obama won more delegates. Sanders and Clinton have been getting closer in the polls since the Vermont independent senator launched his campaign, and both have visited Nevada repeatedly in a bid to boost turnout.
4. Do you have to be a registered party member to participate? Yes, you do. But the good news is, the Democrats will let you register or re-register with the party on the day of the caucus. The Republicans don’t offer same-day registration, however, so if you want to turn out for a GOP candidate, you have to sign up by February 13.
5. Will this be the last year of the early caucuses for Nevada? Everyone knows the Nevada caucus was the gift of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who had the clout with the Democratic National Committee to bump his home state up on the primary calendar. Reid said he did it to ensure that there was diversity and a Western sensibility when it came to picking a president. But with Reid scheduled to depart, and Nevada guaranteed to lose his influence in Washington, it’s not inconceivable that another politically connected Western state might try to steal Nevada’s early spot. Remember, Nevada has only been voting early since 2008. Iowa and New Hampshire have enjoyed their early voting spots for decades.