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Are NV Dems Fracturered Enough For Trump To Win Here?

The big news in politics in Nevada last week was the screaming, yelling and chaos of the state Democratic Convention at the Paris hotel casino last Saturday.

A few thousand people – both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton supporters – crammed into a convention hall hoping to bring more delegate votes to their candidate. Their prize in all this: an presidential nomination for their candidate.

Hillary Clinton came away the winner.

But convention chaos was the news heard around the country.

People now say they saw no chair throwing, as first reported. But after the convention, state Democratic Party Chairwoman Roberta Lange received death threats. Some were recorded and Las Vegas Metro Police were contacted.

And voters are left with a lot of questions. The big one: Democrats in Nevada hold a voter registration lead over Republicans. But is the Democratic Party in Nevada now so fractured that Republicans have a chance to win the state with Donald Trump?

Steve Sebelius, columnist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and a weekly contributor to KNPR, believes that could happen. Jon Ralston, who is a columnist for the Reno Gazette-Journal, said that is the only way Trump could win. 

INTERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS:

Jon Ralston, give us a sense of what the Democratic Convention was like:

Ralston: It was clear from relatively early on that the Bernie Sanders folks were going to raise questions about the fairness of the process. They had done that in advance by suing the state party over some things. They were loaded for bear when they got there. Not all of them but a certain number of them. There were national campaign operatives and local campaign operatives there I think stirring the pot.

I was not around for the end, but people I have talked to said it was a very frightening atmosphere and they’re not surprised that security shut it down.  

In your Reno Gazette-Journal column this week, you said the Bernie Sanders supporters were “conspiracy theorizing” and doing “revisionist history.” What do you mean by that?

Ralston: They don’t want to remember that Hillary Clinton actually won the caucus on February 20. Now, they’re coming up with all kinds of conspiracies about why they lost. They lost… because they got out organized, out hustled. They left almost 500 delegate slots unfilled. We wouldn’t be having this conversation if they had filled those. They didn’t even have to fill all of them.

What is your take on the voice vote issue brought up by Bernie Sanders’ supporter Angie Morelli?

Ralston: I was there for the voice vote. In my opinion, the Bernie Sanders side of the room was clearly louder, but that’s not how these things are decided. If they’re decided by who screams the loudest, then that would be utter chaos.

I think the bigger story, to me, is not how they behaved there or at the end of the convention, but what happened afterwards and how this is emblematic, I think, of what’s going on in the Sanders’ campaign as it becomes clear to his supporters that he is going to lose to Hillary Clinton. There is a lot of frustration, and the question is whether it’s a harbinger for both Philadelphia and then beyond for November and whether Hillary Clinton, who is now being very conciliatory to those Bernie supporters, can pull those Democrats into the fold.

Steve, explain why you say Clinton’s people out organized Sanders’ people at this convention?

Sebelius: Each candidate earned a certain number of delegate slots. Clinton went overtime in filling those slots. I talked to one delegate who said she received multiple phone calls, multiple texts, everything but a ride to the convention that day. Basically telling her the importance of having people there. They had to get their supporters there and they surely did. She filled almost every single slot that was available.

Bernie Sanders left more than 460 slots unfilled. Her margin of victory was 33. Presumably, if he had turned out 34 more registered voters he could have won the convention. And I put air quotes around “won” because victory here would have meant, at most, flipping the pledge delegates totals so he came away with 20 and Hillary Clinton left with 15.

Now, when you’re trailing nationally by 760 delegates it seems a little much to threaten to kill people - to insinuate you’re going to do harm to a party chairwoman over five delegates that aren’t going to matter ultimately given that Hillary Clinton is about 90 delegates from securing the nomination out right, which will end this debate going forward.

Is Nevada’s Democratic Party fractured?

Sebelius: Well, I think there was a fracture that deepened and widened at the Democratic Party convention. Sadly, that is based on misperceptions. There is a misperception that something was stolen from the Bernie Sanders’ supporters… I do think there is a perception and again – not based on facts – but based on what happened at the convention where they think something was stolen from them and that is big problem for Hillary Clinton. Because there are people who – and these were the guys who were shouting “Bernie or Bust” at the end - who will not vote for her because they believe her win is illegitimate.  Not only here but elsewhere around the country. She has to worry about winning those people over.

It makes no sense that someone who would be in favor of universal health care, free college tuition or a higher minimum wage would skip over Hillary Clinton and stay home, go third party or whatever and allow Donald Trump who wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act and thinks wages in America are too high. It makes no sense that they would let that happen, but the hurt feelings and the resentment over the party could end in exactly that result.

Ralston: There’s no question she’s worried about that and there’s no question that’s why she’s being so conciliatory right now toward to the Bernie Sanders. Her spokesmen are now out there saying, ‘we have to unite against Donald Trump.’ They just want to brush over what happened at the convention because they don’t want to dwell on that because it’s bad for them to have the divided Democratic Party.

If Hillary Clinton loses a lot of these Bernie Sanders’ supporters to voting for Trump or sitting on their hands, that could be a problem for her in the general election. I think it is the only way Trump can win the general election.

Jon Ralston, columnist, Reno Gazette-Journal, host "Ralston Live" Vegas PBS;  Steve Sebelius, columnist, Las Vegas Review-Journal, host "Politics NOW" KLAS-TV

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Joe Schoenmann joined Nevada Public Radio in 2014. He works with a talented team of producers at State of Nevada who explore the casino industry, sports, politics, public health and everything in between.