National polling shows Republicans are poised to make strong gains across the country today.
According to three election forecasting models, there is at least a 70 percent chance the GOP will claim a majority in the U.S. Senate. That means U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would lose some of his clout in Washington DC. Here in Nevada, some of Harry Reid’s Democratic legacy is on the line as well.
Which is why Reid has helped bring a flurry of high-level Democratic surrogates to Nevada recently.
Last week, President Bill Clinton stood at a podium squinting paternally at several hundred enthusiastic Dems. “Why’s Karl Rove spending a million dollars to defeat Steven Horsford?” Clinton asked with a sly look on his face.
Of course, Bill Clinton knows exactly why Karl Rove and his Political Action Committee, Crossroads GPS, have spent more than a million dollars in Nevada over the past few weeks to defeat a freshman Congressman here.
Karl Rove smells political vulnerability like a bear smells a picnic. And in recent weeks, with Democratic turnout lower than it’s been in years, Rove’s Super PAC bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of air-time for ads.
The early voting numbers are in, and things look grim for Democrats running in Nevada. Roughly 24,000 more registered Republicans voted early than did registered Democrats.
Which may be why, on Sunday, Congressman Steven Horsford could be found at his campaign headquarters in the early evening, calling registered voters.
A few hundred volunteers were on hand, some working the phones in English and Spanish, others heading out to go canvassing door-to-door. Horsford surveys the youthful energy with pride.
"My opponent might have the super PACS. I have the people," Horsford said.
Horsford claims that his opponent -- Republican Cresent Hardy of Mesquite — is a candidate almost entirely held afloat by Super-PAC money.
"I can handle losing an election to an opponent who has better ideas and who can get their message out," Horsford said. "What I cannot handle is a SuperPAC trying to come in here and buy a seat in the Congress."
Many Democratic candidates in Nevada are in trouble — some are more vulnerable than Steven Horsford, some less. When all the ballots are counted this evening, the leadership of the Nevada State Senate could swing Republican. And while it’s a long shot, some experts are saying the Nevada Assembly could be in play as well. Sure, Super-PAC money is influencing races here, but there have been other, less-visible changes as well.
Around the same time Horsford was making calls on Sunday, Bob Kessler was going door-to-door in the Sun City Summerlin area. Kessler is a retired military and aerospace professional in his 70’s. As a Republican canvasser, he’s used to empty homes and people who just don’t want visitors.
"They see some stranger with a clipboard walking up to their door," Kessler jokes. "They don’t know if I’m a meter reader, a process server or another political pest."
In a dozen knocks, only two people answer the door. And one of them — an elderly man named Rick Peters — is not happy.
Nonetheless, Kessler calmed Peters down through the security screen door, and made his pitch. In less than a minute, Peters assured us he'll vote for Cresent Hardy and the other Republicans on the ballot.
According to Clark County Republican party chair Dave McKeon, efforts by volunteers like Bob Kessler are part of the reason Republicans outflanked Democrats this year in early voting. Since he was elected chair last year, McKeon has made changes to the party apparatus.
“I focused on organization. Not on ideology. Not on policy," McKeon said outside Cresent Hardy's campaign headquarters in Sun City Summerlin. "My job is to organize the party, to turn out the volunteers to help our candidates win.”
McKeon also admits to stealing a few techniques from the enemy when he moved to Nevada from California in 2009.
"I registered as a Democrat, and I wanted to learn about this Harry Reid machine," McKeon said. "Everyone said the Harry Reid machine is unbeatable ... As soon as I registered as a Democrat, I had people knocking on my door, I received phone calls, I received literature in the mail. I thought, 'Holy Cow'. They know how to communicate. When I registered back as Republican -- zero phone calls, zero literature, zero knocking on doors. And I realized we had a problem."
So where is the Reid machine this year? According to UNLV political science professor Dave Damore, Harry Reid has been stretched thinner than usual.
“Harry Reid is preoccupied with maintaining Democratic control of the US Senate," Damore said. "And so a lot of those resources that might otherwise come to Nevada to help out Democrats here, are going to be going elsewhere.”
With no presidential candidate or other high-profile race, Democrats have found it nearly impossible to energize their base in Nevada.
"We’re finding that without the big push from the unions, without the big push from the Reid organization, and without a top tier candidate, they’re struggling in this environment.” Damore said.
Not everyone agrees with Damore, among them, R&R Partners CEO Billy Vassiliadis. Vassiliadis is an advertising and lobbying executive with close ties to Reid.
"Reid’s an amazing multi-tasker," said Vassiliadis. "I think there’s a myth that he’s so focused on the US Senate races that he’s not paying attention to Nevada. And that’s just not true.He is focused on Nevada and he’s focused on Kansas and Georgia, and every place else that he needs to do well to retain control of the Unites States Senate…You know people are trying to blame somebody. There’s nobody really to blame.”
Vassiliadis also contends that the Nevada Democratic machine is at work, though he concedes it may have been pushed into action later than in past election cycles. He says it’s just harder this year to motivate Democrats.
“It’s out there happening. Is it too little too late? Is it enough? Are the messages strong enough? I think they will be to carry some races over the finish line," Vassiliadis said. "But at the end of the day, I think we’re seeing nationally, this is a Republican year. This country operates in relatively predictable political cycles. The Democrats have been in charge now for awhile. And people are sort of mad.”
By Wednesday morning, we'll know more about just how mad voters are this year.
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